Beliefs
Jesus (peace be with him) Through Shi'ite Narration
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Friday, July 18, 2008
Zapatero in Beirut Bush set for Mideast Tour
Zapatero in Beirut Bush set for Mideast Tour
On the eve of the Arab Foreign Ministers meeting in Cairo, political stalemate in Lebanon persists unabated. The war of words between the loyalty and the opposition has been heating up ever since US President George W. Bush announced his planned visit to the Middle East next week. France has failed to promote an agreement with Syria over a consensual and comprehensive solution in Lebanon prompting Damascus to break off contacts with Paris over the political crisis. "It seems that the French endeavor to persuade MP Saad Hariri (February 14 bloc) to accept this solution lost ground," Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said last Wednesday. What's next?
On Saturday, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Louis Zapatero arrived in Beirut on a surprise visit to meet Lebanese officials and check on the Spanish contingent working with the UNIFIL in south Lebanon. Zapatero held talks with the head of the unconstitutional government Fouad Saniora. Madrid has been engaged in international efforts to find a solution to the crisis in Lebanon, crowned by visits by Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos to Beirut and Damascus in recent months.
Bush held Syria responsible for the "impasse" that has prevented Lebanon from electing a new president, saying there should be a "clear message to the Syrians from all of us that you will continue to be isolated." In an interview with international media, Bush said that on his trip next week to the Middle East he would seek to remind other leaders "how important it is for Lebanon to succeed and how important it is for all of us to work to free that government from foreign interference." "I am disappointed that the presidency has not been selected, and believe very much that Syrian influence is preventing the selection," Bush said. In his interview last Wednesday, Moallem said that many countries including some Arab states have more influence on the February 14 bloc than Syria has on the opposition. "Why don't they use their influence to push toward a win-win formula in Lebanon?" Muallem wondered. Bush reiterated his position regarding the half-plus-one formula to elect a president for Lebanon. "My position has been that the March 14th Coalition, if it had mustered a majority plus one, 50 percent plus one, should be allowed to go forward with the selection of the president," he said. Bush did not forget to praise the head of the unconstitutional government Fouad Saniora saying he has been "very impressed" by Saniora "as a man who's committed to the well-being of all the Lebanese people."
Bush is scheduled to depart Tuesday for a visit to occupied Palestine and the Palestinian territories in an attempt to boost Middle East talks re-launched at an international conference in Annapolis in November. He is not scheduled to visit Lebanon on the trip.
On the eve of the Arab Foreign Ministers meeting in Cairo, political stalemate in Lebanon persists unabated. The war of words between the loyalty and the opposition has been heating up ever since US President George W. Bush announced his planned visit to the Middle East next week. France has failed to promote an agreement with Syria over a consensual and comprehensive solution in Lebanon prompting Damascus to break off contacts with Paris over the political crisis. "It seems that the French endeavor to persuade MP Saad Hariri (February 14 bloc) to accept this solution lost ground," Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem said last Wednesday. What's next?
On Saturday, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Louis Zapatero arrived in Beirut on a surprise visit to meet Lebanese officials and check on the Spanish contingent working with the UNIFIL in south Lebanon. Zapatero held talks with the head of the unconstitutional government Fouad Saniora. Madrid has been engaged in international efforts to find a solution to the crisis in Lebanon, crowned by visits by Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos to Beirut and Damascus in recent months.
Bush held Syria responsible for the "impasse" that has prevented Lebanon from electing a new president, saying there should be a "clear message to the Syrians from all of us that you will continue to be isolated." In an interview with international media, Bush said that on his trip next week to the Middle East he would seek to remind other leaders "how important it is for Lebanon to succeed and how important it is for all of us to work to free that government from foreign interference." "I am disappointed that the presidency has not been selected, and believe very much that Syrian influence is preventing the selection," Bush said. In his interview last Wednesday, Moallem said that many countries including some Arab states have more influence on the February 14 bloc than Syria has on the opposition. "Why don't they use their influence to push toward a win-win formula in Lebanon?" Muallem wondered. Bush reiterated his position regarding the half-plus-one formula to elect a president for Lebanon. "My position has been that the March 14th Coalition, if it had mustered a majority plus one, 50 percent plus one, should be allowed to go forward with the selection of the president," he said. Bush did not forget to praise the head of the unconstitutional government Fouad Saniora saying he has been "very impressed" by Saniora "as a man who's committed to the well-being of all the Lebanese people."
Bush is scheduled to depart Tuesday for a visit to occupied Palestine and the Palestinian territories in an attempt to boost Middle East talks re-launched at an international conference in Annapolis in November. He is not scheduled to visit Lebanon on the trip.
From High Hopes to Abyss; The Lebanon Dilemma
From High Hopes to Abyss; The Lebanon Dilemma
Water water everywhere, but not a drop to drink. The atmosphere of abundant hopes to push the political crisis in Lebanon one iota towards solution seems to have scattered away, again.
Arab League Secretary General Amr Mussa 'was surprised by the openness and positivism of MP General Michel Aoun' during their meeting Thursday. Of course the goal of both Mussa and the opposition is to cut a comprehensive political deal with the ruling bloc under the auspices of the Arab League to solve the crisis.
Amr Moussa arrived in Beirut Wednesday evening to present a plan, unanimously endorsed by Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on Saturday, calling for the election of the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, General Michel Suleiman, as president, the formation of a national unity government and the adoption of a new electoral law.
HIGH HOPES AND THEN…
But how would Mussa arrange a meeting between the feuding parties to negotiate an agreement, given the tense political situation and the little time left for him in Lebanon? General Aoun foresaw this ordeal and proposed to Mussa that he (Aoun) meets MP Saad Hariri. "I am commissioned by the opposition and I can take upon myself that I will not leave the meeting room before signing the deal with Hariri, even without consulting my allies in the opposition because they have trustfully delegated me," Assafir quoted Aoun as telling Mussa. The Arab chief also welcomed Aoun's proposal that the meeting with Hariri be held in parliament. On his way to Speaker Nabih Berri's residence, the Arab chief contacted Hariri and conveyed Aoun's proposal. He asked the Future Movement leader for an official response to the proposal. Berri expressed relief and told Mussa he was ready to do everything necessary to bring about the meeting. "The doors of the parliament are open to you," Berri said. This was the point of culmination.
FALL INTO ABYSS
The first sign of decline came from local media outlets which broadcast the news of the meeting between Hariri and Aoun, even before Mussa arrived to Berri's residence. It was supposed to be kept secret. The steep decline came from Qoraytem (Hariri's headquarters). Hariri rejected meeting Aoun. Mussa only knew about the decision through media outlets just as he was wrapping up his meeting with Berri. The Assafir daily reported that the Future Movement leader had consulted his allies in the February 14 coalition. Some of them proposed 'an expanded dialogue gathering' while Lebanese Forces Chief Samir Geagea demanded he takes part in any meeting between Hariri and Aoun. The former army general responded: "The opposition can take part in any expanded meeting, however I will not participate. They (February 14) are not serious about finding a solution."
HEZBOLLAH: TALK TO AOUN
Mussa wrapped up his second day in Lebanon with a meeting with Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
Sayyed Nasrallah told Mussa that Aoun is delegated to negotiate with the loyalty bloc on behalf of the opposition. His eminence advised the Arab League chief to communicate with Aoun to reach the hoped for results. Sayyed Nasrallah stressed the opposition is seeking real partnership, not a formal one.
CONCLUSION: SOLUTION OUT OF REACH
In view of his marathon tour so far, Mussa said that the 'Cairo declaration' stipulates that no Lebanese party can control the fate of the government and that the upcoming president of the republic would have a fundamental role in this regard. Mussa also said that the ministerial quota suggested in the declaration does not mean equal thirds to the loyalty, the president and the opposition. "The loyalty bloc, as a majority in parliament, would have 11 ministers, the opposition 10 ministers and the rest goes to the president.
The Al-Akhbar daily quoted opposition sources as saying that they will not agree to any formula that would give the loyalty bloc more than 10 ministers, unless the opposition was given the guaranteeing one third of ministers. Aoun warned that "we are running out of patience." "We take 11 ministers and the remaining 19 ministers would be distributed between the president and the loyalty bloc," Aoun told Mussa. For its part the loyalty bloc told the Arab leader that "there is no way to accept a formula that would give the loyalty and the opposition and equal number of ministers." "The solution is to give the opposition 10 ministers, another 8 to the president and 12 ministers to the loyalty bloc," Al-Akhbar daily quoted February 14 sources as saying. "There is no way to talk to Aoun. Dialogue can take place at a round table or with the Speaker," it added. The loyalty bloc, according to the daily, does not want the question of the electoral law to be determined at the time being.
Water water everywhere, but not a drop to drink. The atmosphere of abundant hopes to push the political crisis in Lebanon one iota towards solution seems to have scattered away, again.
Arab League Secretary General Amr Mussa 'was surprised by the openness and positivism of MP General Michel Aoun' during their meeting Thursday. Of course the goal of both Mussa and the opposition is to cut a comprehensive political deal with the ruling bloc under the auspices of the Arab League to solve the crisis.
Amr Moussa arrived in Beirut Wednesday evening to present a plan, unanimously endorsed by Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on Saturday, calling for the election of the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, General Michel Suleiman, as president, the formation of a national unity government and the adoption of a new electoral law.
HIGH HOPES AND THEN…
But how would Mussa arrange a meeting between the feuding parties to negotiate an agreement, given the tense political situation and the little time left for him in Lebanon? General Aoun foresaw this ordeal and proposed to Mussa that he (Aoun) meets MP Saad Hariri. "I am commissioned by the opposition and I can take upon myself that I will not leave the meeting room before signing the deal with Hariri, even without consulting my allies in the opposition because they have trustfully delegated me," Assafir quoted Aoun as telling Mussa. The Arab chief also welcomed Aoun's proposal that the meeting with Hariri be held in parliament. On his way to Speaker Nabih Berri's residence, the Arab chief contacted Hariri and conveyed Aoun's proposal. He asked the Future Movement leader for an official response to the proposal. Berri expressed relief and told Mussa he was ready to do everything necessary to bring about the meeting. "The doors of the parliament are open to you," Berri said. This was the point of culmination.
FALL INTO ABYSS
The first sign of decline came from local media outlets which broadcast the news of the meeting between Hariri and Aoun, even before Mussa arrived to Berri's residence. It was supposed to be kept secret. The steep decline came from Qoraytem (Hariri's headquarters). Hariri rejected meeting Aoun. Mussa only knew about the decision through media outlets just as he was wrapping up his meeting with Berri. The Assafir daily reported that the Future Movement leader had consulted his allies in the February 14 coalition. Some of them proposed 'an expanded dialogue gathering' while Lebanese Forces Chief Samir Geagea demanded he takes part in any meeting between Hariri and Aoun. The former army general responded: "The opposition can take part in any expanded meeting, however I will not participate. They (February 14) are not serious about finding a solution."
HEZBOLLAH: TALK TO AOUN
Mussa wrapped up his second day in Lebanon with a meeting with Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
Sayyed Nasrallah told Mussa that Aoun is delegated to negotiate with the loyalty bloc on behalf of the opposition. His eminence advised the Arab League chief to communicate with Aoun to reach the hoped for results. Sayyed Nasrallah stressed the opposition is seeking real partnership, not a formal one.
CONCLUSION: SOLUTION OUT OF REACH
In view of his marathon tour so far, Mussa said that the 'Cairo declaration' stipulates that no Lebanese party can control the fate of the government and that the upcoming president of the republic would have a fundamental role in this regard. Mussa also said that the ministerial quota suggested in the declaration does not mean equal thirds to the loyalty, the president and the opposition. "The loyalty bloc, as a majority in parliament, would have 11 ministers, the opposition 10 ministers and the rest goes to the president.
The Al-Akhbar daily quoted opposition sources as saying that they will not agree to any formula that would give the loyalty bloc more than 10 ministers, unless the opposition was given the guaranteeing one third of ministers. Aoun warned that "we are running out of patience." "We take 11 ministers and the remaining 19 ministers would be distributed between the president and the loyalty bloc," Aoun told Mussa. For its part the loyalty bloc told the Arab leader that "there is no way to accept a formula that would give the loyalty and the opposition and equal number of ministers." "The solution is to give the opposition 10 ministers, another 8 to the president and 12 ministers to the loyalty bloc," Al-Akhbar daily quoted February 14 sources as saying. "There is no way to talk to Aoun. Dialogue can take place at a round table or with the Speaker," it added. The loyalty bloc, according to the daily, does not want the question of the electoral law to be determined at the time being.
Bush`s Weepy Visit to Jerasulem
Bush`s Weepy Visit to Jerasulem
President Bush, tearied eyed and wearing a Yarmulke toured Yad Vashem, The Holocaust Remembrance Museum in Jerusalem Thursday. Calling on a now very common argument to show gentile unconcern and therefore complicity in Jewish suffering, Bush said in reference to Auschwitz: "We should have bombed it."
An Associated Press article explained the US "chose not to bomb the camp, the rail lines leading to it, or any other death camps preferring instead to focus all resources on the broader military effort." The article placed the number of killed at the camp from between 1.1 and 1.5 million.
But history has it different. The US did not have the knowledge nor opportunity to bomb Auschwitz until the summer of 1944. The camp was liberated by Soviet troops in January of 1945, thus at the time the US could have bombed, the vast majority of the 1.1 to 1.5 million internees had already been killed.
In a history that is very well documented, (see: Peter Novick's "The Holocaust in American Life") the US decided not to bomb because doing so would have certainly killed large numbers of internees, while not necessarily stopping the Nazi's capability to mass-murder. Aerial Bombings in 1944 were very inaccurate, to the point that bombing only parts of the camp while sparing others would have been almost impossible. Bombing rail lines was also not something the US was capable of doing effectively and therefore the option wasn't even strongly considered.
Despite this history, the decision not to bomb is routinely referenced to strengthen arguments that the State of Israel and therefore its policies are necessary to the survival of the Jewish people. One notable example is Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comments at Auschwitz in 1998: "All that was needed was to bomb the train tracks. The Allies bombed the targets nearby. The pilots only had to nudge their crosshairs. You think they didn't know? They knew. They didn't bomb because at that time the Jews didn't have a state, nor the political force to protect themselves"
Beyond invoking these ideas, Bush's words also argue that the US (and the World) failed the Jewish people and thus owe Israel something (previous Jewish suffering trump current Palestinian suffering). Bush's words also serve to justify his approach to many international issues: bombing.
I know when I toured Yad Vashem my thoughts were not on fantasy bombing raids but rather on my family, Jews from Eastern Europe. I wonder if Bush thought about his grandfather Prescott Bush who was Director of IG Farber in 1942 when the company's assets were seized under The Trading with the Enemy Act. A 1942 official report examining the company's business dealings in Germany concluded "these (steel and mining) properties have been in considerable assistance to that country's [Germany's] war effort." (see this 2004 Guardian Article).
If Bush honestly thought about history he would have considered the dangers of war profiteering and not have looked for more opportunities for humanitarian bombing.
But Bush doesn't look at anything honestly, he prefers to rely on overused and refuted rhetoric and the AP and Yad Vashem are not willing to put him to task.
-----------------------------------
By ANDREW SILVERSTEIN
President Bush, tearied eyed and wearing a Yarmulke toured Yad Vashem, The Holocaust Remembrance Museum in Jerusalem Thursday. Calling on a now very common argument to show gentile unconcern and therefore complicity in Jewish suffering, Bush said in reference to Auschwitz: "We should have bombed it."
An Associated Press article explained the US "chose not to bomb the camp, the rail lines leading to it, or any other death camps preferring instead to focus all resources on the broader military effort." The article placed the number of killed at the camp from between 1.1 and 1.5 million.
But history has it different. The US did not have the knowledge nor opportunity to bomb Auschwitz until the summer of 1944. The camp was liberated by Soviet troops in January of 1945, thus at the time the US could have bombed, the vast majority of the 1.1 to 1.5 million internees had already been killed.
In a history that is very well documented, (see: Peter Novick's "The Holocaust in American Life") the US decided not to bomb because doing so would have certainly killed large numbers of internees, while not necessarily stopping the Nazi's capability to mass-murder. Aerial Bombings in 1944 were very inaccurate, to the point that bombing only parts of the camp while sparing others would have been almost impossible. Bombing rail lines was also not something the US was capable of doing effectively and therefore the option wasn't even strongly considered.
Despite this history, the decision not to bomb is routinely referenced to strengthen arguments that the State of Israel and therefore its policies are necessary to the survival of the Jewish people. One notable example is Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu comments at Auschwitz in 1998: "All that was needed was to bomb the train tracks. The Allies bombed the targets nearby. The pilots only had to nudge their crosshairs. You think they didn't know? They knew. They didn't bomb because at that time the Jews didn't have a state, nor the political force to protect themselves"
Beyond invoking these ideas, Bush's words also argue that the US (and the World) failed the Jewish people and thus owe Israel something (previous Jewish suffering trump current Palestinian suffering). Bush's words also serve to justify his approach to many international issues: bombing.
I know when I toured Yad Vashem my thoughts were not on fantasy bombing raids but rather on my family, Jews from Eastern Europe. I wonder if Bush thought about his grandfather Prescott Bush who was Director of IG Farber in 1942 when the company's assets were seized under The Trading with the Enemy Act. A 1942 official report examining the company's business dealings in Germany concluded "these (steel and mining) properties have been in considerable assistance to that country's [Germany's] war effort." (see this 2004 Guardian Article).
If Bush honestly thought about history he would have considered the dangers of war profiteering and not have looked for more opportunities for humanitarian bombing.
But Bush doesn't look at anything honestly, he prefers to rely on overused and refuted rhetoric and the AP and Yad Vashem are not willing to put him to task.
-----------------------------------
By ANDREW SILVERSTEIN
Bush in the Middle East
Bush in the Middle East
To understand why George Bush, the US president, is visiting the Middle East and what he seeks to accomplish, re-read the recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton commission from December 2006, subtract what has been implemented since then and you are left with a must-do list in this troubled region.
Bush's visit to Israel and the occupied territories underlined his intentions to continue implementing the recommendations of the commission - also known as the Iraq Survey Group (ISG) - albeit slowly, superficially and at times clumsily in order to give the impression of being bold and righteous.
Nevertheless, more than a year after its publication, the sobering bi-partisan ISG report remains the administration's only path out of the Middle East quagmire.
Chief among its 79 recommendations is the training of Iraqi forces to 'stand up' so that US troops stand down and walk away. The report also pushes for constructive regional involvement from Iraq's neighbours and serious effort to resolve the Palestinian question.
No Bush administration official understood this better than Robert Gates, an ISG member and secretary of defence.
Since he succeeded Donald Rumsfeld in November 2006, this "political realist" at the helm of the Pentagon has been implementing the commission's proposals in all but name and according to the administration's own operative-mode, calendar and priorities.
Stability in Iraq
The first recommendation Gates implemented, the surge, was the least favoured.
While the ISG "rejected" a troop increase, it did support a "surge of American combat forces to stabilise Baghdad, or to speed up the training and equipping mission" if the generals deemed it necessary.
The ISG authors believed there was no military solution to the Iraq conflict and therefore strongly recommended that the administration place greater emphasis on political solutions "to ensure disaffected groups (specifically the Sunnis) are brought into Iraq's political process".
The administration convinced the Iraqi government to commit to a number of benchmarks that include building a better army, ending sectarian violence, and adopting equitable distribution of oil revenues, among others.
It also emphasised that it sent the extra troops only after the Iraqi government promised a "fundamental" change in policy.
Meanwhile, improved relations between the US military and a number of tribal opposition Sunni groups have enticed the White House to pressure the Shia-controlled government of Nuri al-Maliki, the prime minister, to open up.
But in the absence of political reconciliation, and with Iraq's ethnic groups becoming better armed and more sectarian, an all-out civil war becomes more likely today than ever before.
Regional stability
The ISG also made it clear that reconciliation is more likely to succeed through a regional diplomatic offensive which could contain and resolve Iraq's conflicts.
The Bush administration has already participated in three mid-level talks with Iran, Syria, Turkey and other regional and international powers over Iraq, but it is far from the ISG's strongly advised regional conference.
Although the administration has been instrumental in bringing the aforementioned to the negotiating table, Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, has bizarrely insisted it was Iraq, not the US, who called for the talks.
Nonetheless, and despite the recent naval incident in the Persian Gulf, American and Iranian officials have sounded more conciliatory over the last four weeks than during the previous four years.
For their part, US generals speak of increased Iranian security cooperation to curb the smuggling of arms and fighters across the border and also restrain armed groups like Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army.
Washington's 'psychological war' in the form of a military build-up, or 'gunboat diplomacy' in the Persian Gulf, might have failed to stop Iran from enriching Uranium, but it did convince Tehran to make positive gestures towards Washington.
Begin with Iran
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, struck a mild tone during his December 11 press conference when he called for dialogue with Washington and refrained from the usual anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric.
His participation in the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Doha in early December 2007 followed by a Saudi Arabian invitation to perform the Hajj were not discouraged by Washington.
With the Iran nuclear roadblock mostly out of the way, thanks to the (incidental?) National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) findings, Iran's imminent threat status has now been downgraded.
This effectively removes the main obstacle which had prevented US-Iran coordination over the future of Iraq.
Likewise, US-Syrian relations have started to come out of the deep freeze with the latter's recent cooperation on border security.
According to Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq's foreign minister, the cooperation with Syria has led to a 70 per cent decline in the number of fighters infiltrating across the border.
Israel problem
Syria and many of its Arab counterparts accepted Washington's invitation to attend the Annapolis meeting which promised to move towards negotiating the hardcore stumbling blocks to Israeli-Palestinian peace.
The overdue "peace conference" is a first step in the implementation of another important ISG recommendation: seeking agreements on all final status issues of Jerusalem, Jewish settlements and the repatriation of Palestinian refugees by the end of 2008.
A year behind the ISG' proposed schedule to redeploy most forces out of Iraq, US officials now believe the army could reduce its brigades to the pre-surge levels,as more soldiers take on the role of training the Iraqi Army.
This could prove to be too little and too late to salvage whatever is left of Iraq's unity and America's credibility, especially that the obstacles and challenges in 2008 are all too daunting.
Leaning on friends
It is perhaps also too late in the day for Bush to effect major change. But what he needs to do has never been clearer.
The US president must pressure his Israeli allies to be more forthcoming in their talks with the Palestinians. He must also pressure his Baghdad allies to do more for national reconciliation in Iraq.
Both governments know all too well that they must share power and resources equitably with the other inhabitants of the land as preconditions to ending the the bloodshed.
The Bush administration would be wise to ensure that Iraq delivers on the "benchmarks" and Israel fulfils its obligations on the "final status issues" to avoid escalation in the region.
But judging by Bush's statements at the end of his visit to Israel and Palestine, that looks hardly forthcoming.
Mending bridges
No less challenging to the Bush administration is the need to overcome the hawkish and neoconservative detractors in its midst in order to reverse its menacing tone toward Tehran and Damascus.
The administration also needs to be ready and willing to pay the geopolitical price for a long-term strategic cooperation over Iraq.
This includes among others, Washington's commitment to refrain from calling for regime change and instead accepting both Iran and Syria's regional roles as part of a new regional security model fashioned on the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
For Damascus, Washington should recognise that Syria's special relationship with Lebanon is paramount and also help in securing Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights.
To better implement the ISG recommendations, the Bush administration must also encourage the UN Security Council to invite the leaders of Iraq's neighbors to an international conference that puts the necessary pressures on the Iraqis to reach political reconciliation.
Otherwise, 2008 will witness the violent break-up of Iraq leading to terrible consequences for the region.
--------------------------
By MARWAN BISHARA
Marwan Bishara is a senior political analyst for Al Jazeera.
To understand why George Bush, the US president, is visiting the Middle East and what he seeks to accomplish, re-read the recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton commission from December 2006, subtract what has been implemented since then and you are left with a must-do list in this troubled region.
Bush's visit to Israel and the occupied territories underlined his intentions to continue implementing the recommendations of the commission - also known as the Iraq Survey Group (ISG) - albeit slowly, superficially and at times clumsily in order to give the impression of being bold and righteous.
Nevertheless, more than a year after its publication, the sobering bi-partisan ISG report remains the administration's only path out of the Middle East quagmire.
Chief among its 79 recommendations is the training of Iraqi forces to 'stand up' so that US troops stand down and walk away. The report also pushes for constructive regional involvement from Iraq's neighbours and serious effort to resolve the Palestinian question.
No Bush administration official understood this better than Robert Gates, an ISG member and secretary of defence.
Since he succeeded Donald Rumsfeld in November 2006, this "political realist" at the helm of the Pentagon has been implementing the commission's proposals in all but name and according to the administration's own operative-mode, calendar and priorities.
Stability in Iraq
The first recommendation Gates implemented, the surge, was the least favoured.
While the ISG "rejected" a troop increase, it did support a "surge of American combat forces to stabilise Baghdad, or to speed up the training and equipping mission" if the generals deemed it necessary.
The ISG authors believed there was no military solution to the Iraq conflict and therefore strongly recommended that the administration place greater emphasis on political solutions "to ensure disaffected groups (specifically the Sunnis) are brought into Iraq's political process".
The administration convinced the Iraqi government to commit to a number of benchmarks that include building a better army, ending sectarian violence, and adopting equitable distribution of oil revenues, among others.
It also emphasised that it sent the extra troops only after the Iraqi government promised a "fundamental" change in policy.
Meanwhile, improved relations between the US military and a number of tribal opposition Sunni groups have enticed the White House to pressure the Shia-controlled government of Nuri al-Maliki, the prime minister, to open up.
But in the absence of political reconciliation, and with Iraq's ethnic groups becoming better armed and more sectarian, an all-out civil war becomes more likely today than ever before.
Regional stability
The ISG also made it clear that reconciliation is more likely to succeed through a regional diplomatic offensive which could contain and resolve Iraq's conflicts.
The Bush administration has already participated in three mid-level talks with Iran, Syria, Turkey and other regional and international powers over Iraq, but it is far from the ISG's strongly advised regional conference.
Although the administration has been instrumental in bringing the aforementioned to the negotiating table, Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, has bizarrely insisted it was Iraq, not the US, who called for the talks.
Nonetheless, and despite the recent naval incident in the Persian Gulf, American and Iranian officials have sounded more conciliatory over the last four weeks than during the previous four years.
For their part, US generals speak of increased Iranian security cooperation to curb the smuggling of arms and fighters across the border and also restrain armed groups like Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army.
Washington's 'psychological war' in the form of a military build-up, or 'gunboat diplomacy' in the Persian Gulf, might have failed to stop Iran from enriching Uranium, but it did convince Tehran to make positive gestures towards Washington.
Begin with Iran
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, struck a mild tone during his December 11 press conference when he called for dialogue with Washington and refrained from the usual anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric.
His participation in the Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Doha in early December 2007 followed by a Saudi Arabian invitation to perform the Hajj were not discouraged by Washington.
With the Iran nuclear roadblock mostly out of the way, thanks to the (incidental?) National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) findings, Iran's imminent threat status has now been downgraded.
This effectively removes the main obstacle which had prevented US-Iran coordination over the future of Iraq.
Likewise, US-Syrian relations have started to come out of the deep freeze with the latter's recent cooperation on border security.
According to Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq's foreign minister, the cooperation with Syria has led to a 70 per cent decline in the number of fighters infiltrating across the border.
Israel problem
Syria and many of its Arab counterparts accepted Washington's invitation to attend the Annapolis meeting which promised to move towards negotiating the hardcore stumbling blocks to Israeli-Palestinian peace.
The overdue "peace conference" is a first step in the implementation of another important ISG recommendation: seeking agreements on all final status issues of Jerusalem, Jewish settlements and the repatriation of Palestinian refugees by the end of 2008.
A year behind the ISG' proposed schedule to redeploy most forces out of Iraq, US officials now believe the army could reduce its brigades to the pre-surge levels,as more soldiers take on the role of training the Iraqi Army.
This could prove to be too little and too late to salvage whatever is left of Iraq's unity and America's credibility, especially that the obstacles and challenges in 2008 are all too daunting.
Leaning on friends
It is perhaps also too late in the day for Bush to effect major change. But what he needs to do has never been clearer.
The US president must pressure his Israeli allies to be more forthcoming in their talks with the Palestinians. He must also pressure his Baghdad allies to do more for national reconciliation in Iraq.
Both governments know all too well that they must share power and resources equitably with the other inhabitants of the land as preconditions to ending the the bloodshed.
The Bush administration would be wise to ensure that Iraq delivers on the "benchmarks" and Israel fulfils its obligations on the "final status issues" to avoid escalation in the region.
But judging by Bush's statements at the end of his visit to Israel and Palestine, that looks hardly forthcoming.
Mending bridges
No less challenging to the Bush administration is the need to overcome the hawkish and neoconservative detractors in its midst in order to reverse its menacing tone toward Tehran and Damascus.
The administration also needs to be ready and willing to pay the geopolitical price for a long-term strategic cooperation over Iraq.
This includes among others, Washington's commitment to refrain from calling for regime change and instead accepting both Iran and Syria's regional roles as part of a new regional security model fashioned on the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
For Damascus, Washington should recognise that Syria's special relationship with Lebanon is paramount and also help in securing Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights.
To better implement the ISG recommendations, the Bush administration must also encourage the UN Security Council to invite the leaders of Iraq's neighbors to an international conference that puts the necessary pressures on the Iraqis to reach political reconciliation.
Otherwise, 2008 will witness the violent break-up of Iraq leading to terrible consequences for the region.
--------------------------
By MARWAN BISHARA
Marwan Bishara is a senior political analyst for Al Jazeera.
A Week of Funerals in Gaza
A Week of Funerals in Gaza
It was indeed a week of funerals in Gaza with at least 37 people, including children, toddlers and women, killed in the past seven days.
boy loved riding with his father and his father wanted to take him along. He works so much he never gets time to spend with him. Venturing outside together, they were savagely killed in one of the random Israeli missile attacks in Gaza, creating another heart-wrenching tale in the fenced-off Strip.
"We see them all the time, but we cannot stay inside forever," Yusef al-Yazji, a mourning relative of the pair, told Agence France-Presse (AFP) Saturday, January 19.
"We have to work to support our families. We are not wanted men, so we did not think we had to hide," he added after paying last respects to Mohammad and his eight-year-old son.
The pair were killed in an Israeli missile raid Wednesday night, January 17, targeting a car carrying Hamas resistance fighters.
It was indeed a week of funerals in Gaza with at least 37 people, including children, toddlers and women, killed in the past seven days.
Israel has launched an aggressive military operation in Gaza to stop Palestinian rockets fired on neighboring Israeli towns. Palestinian civilians take the brunt of the random raids.
Two more Palestinians were killed Saturday in a pre-dawn Israeli air strike in northern Gaza.
A December report by the Israeli human rights group B'Tsaleem said a third of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in 2007 were civilians.
Israeli and Palestinian rights group have slammed the chief of Israel's internal security service (Shin Bet) for considering children and civilians killed in indiscriminate Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip over the past two years "terrorists."
No Error
Children were clapping their hands in joy at the wedding of another Gaza's couple defying the Israeli siege and aggressions. Suddenly, a buzz was heard overhead and the cheerful scene turned bloody.
"I could not believe what happened," Mohammed Abdel Jawad, the groom, told AFP.
"We were sitting in front of our house, talking and joking. Suddenly there was this big explosion and a huge cloud of smoke. No one could see anything, we just heard crying."
One woman was killed and more than 50 were wounded, mostly women and children, when Israeli planes bombed an abandoned Interior Ministry building in Gaza on Friday.
"It felt like an earthquake," said Umm Fahmi, a woman who lives across from the blast site.
"My house did not only shake, it jumped from its foundations and back down," she said, peering through the dust at the concrete and steel remains of the bombed-out complex.
"How could they (Israelis) drop such a bomb in a residential area on top of people's heads?"
Gazans are wondering is there any way out of the Israeli inferno they have been drawn into.
On Thursday, another deadly missile raid targeting resistance fighters killed an elderly woman, Maryam al-Rahil, riding a donkey cart and her son.
"They could see there was a donkey cart with an old woman riding in it, bundled up because of the cold, and they hit it anyway," said Mohammed al-Rahil, the son's uncle.
"This was not an error."
It was indeed a week of funerals in Gaza with at least 37 people, including children, toddlers and women, killed in the past seven days.
boy loved riding with his father and his father wanted to take him along. He works so much he never gets time to spend with him. Venturing outside together, they were savagely killed in one of the random Israeli missile attacks in Gaza, creating another heart-wrenching tale in the fenced-off Strip.
"We see them all the time, but we cannot stay inside forever," Yusef al-Yazji, a mourning relative of the pair, told Agence France-Presse (AFP) Saturday, January 19.
"We have to work to support our families. We are not wanted men, so we did not think we had to hide," he added after paying last respects to Mohammad and his eight-year-old son.
The pair were killed in an Israeli missile raid Wednesday night, January 17, targeting a car carrying Hamas resistance fighters.
It was indeed a week of funerals in Gaza with at least 37 people, including children, toddlers and women, killed in the past seven days.
Israel has launched an aggressive military operation in Gaza to stop Palestinian rockets fired on neighboring Israeli towns. Palestinian civilians take the brunt of the random raids.
Two more Palestinians were killed Saturday in a pre-dawn Israeli air strike in northern Gaza.
A December report by the Israeli human rights group B'Tsaleem said a third of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in 2007 were civilians.
Israeli and Palestinian rights group have slammed the chief of Israel's internal security service (Shin Bet) for considering children and civilians killed in indiscriminate Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip over the past two years "terrorists."
No Error
Children were clapping their hands in joy at the wedding of another Gaza's couple defying the Israeli siege and aggressions. Suddenly, a buzz was heard overhead and the cheerful scene turned bloody.
"I could not believe what happened," Mohammed Abdel Jawad, the groom, told AFP.
"We were sitting in front of our house, talking and joking. Suddenly there was this big explosion and a huge cloud of smoke. No one could see anything, we just heard crying."
One woman was killed and more than 50 were wounded, mostly women and children, when Israeli planes bombed an abandoned Interior Ministry building in Gaza on Friday.
"It felt like an earthquake," said Umm Fahmi, a woman who lives across from the blast site.
"My house did not only shake, it jumped from its foundations and back down," she said, peering through the dust at the concrete and steel remains of the bombed-out complex.
"How could they (Israelis) drop such a bomb in a residential area on top of people's heads?"
Gazans are wondering is there any way out of the Israeli inferno they have been drawn into.
On Thursday, another deadly missile raid targeting resistance fighters killed an elderly woman, Maryam al-Rahil, riding a donkey cart and her son.
"They could see there was a donkey cart with an old woman riding in it, bundled up because of the cold, and they hit it anyway," said Mohammed al-Rahil, the son's uncle.
"This was not an error."
The Anti-Terror Investigator Is Killed by His Terrorist Enemies
The Anti-Terror Investigator Is Killed by His Terrorist Enemies
Lebanon's top anti-terrorism investigator was slain along with three other people in a powerful car bombing that ripped through a neighbourhood of Beirut on Friday, officials said.
Captain Wissam Eid, 31, a member of the Internal Security Forces (ISF), and his bodyguard were killed along with two civilians, a security official told AFP. He said 38 other people were wounded, with nine taken to hospital.
"Eid was a key member of the ISF and was involved in many investigations related to terrorist bombings in Lebanon in recent years," the official said. "He was involved in sensitive probes and this is a major loss for us."
The official added that Eid had in February 2006 narrowly escaped another attempt on his life when someone threw a grenade in front of his Beirut home.
Another official from the ruling majority said Eid was on his way back from a meeting of the UN commission investigating the 2005 assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri when he was killed.
Hariri's death in a massive car bomb and a number of similar attacks over the past three years have been blamed by the Western-backed parliamentary majority on neighbouring Syria, which has denied involvement.
Brigadier General Ashraf Rifi, head of the ISF, said the car bomb was yet another attempt at destabilizing the country as it grapples with its worst political crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.
"This is a message to the Internal Security Forces following the message sent to the army in December when General Francois el-Hajj was killed in a car bomb" last month, Rifi told reporters at the site of the blast.
Prime Minister Fuad Siniora declared a national day of mourning on Saturday when Eid and his bodyguard are to be buried.
Friday's explosion took place shortly after 10 am (0800 GMT) near a highway overpass in Hazmiyeh, a mainly Christian district in eastern Beirut and an area that houses a number of office buildings.
Local residents and office workers, some screaming and others in shock, could be seen running amongst blazing vehicles searching for friends and loved ones.
"It was an apocalyptic vision," said Ghandour Mashlab, a real estate agent who was at the site.
The security official estimated that the bomb, which blasted a five-metre (16-foot) wide crater into the road, consisted of at least 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of TNT.
A senior member of the anti-Syrian majority pointed the finger at Damascus.
"This bombing is proof that the (Syrian) mukhabarat (intelligence) have infiltrated Lebanese security services,' the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP.
Syria, however, condemned the killing and blamed "Lebanon's enemies".
The bombing was also widely denounced by the international community and Arab states.
"Lebanon has too long suffered from foreign interference," said US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in a clear allusion to Syria, complaining about the "violent pattern and intimidation" of the Beirut bombing.
UN chief Ban Ki-moon said the latest attack "should not be allowed to undermine the security, stability and sovereignty of Lebanon".
"We strongly condemn the terrorist bombing in Beirut today that killed a police captain and many other Lebanese," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said.
Britain's Foreign Office said it should not be allowed to derail the probe into the string of killings in Lebanon.
In Riyadh, Saudi King Abdullah called for unity to foil "the schemes of those who do not wish well for Lebanon" while Arab League chief Amr Mussa warned that the latest attack could "affect the unity of Lebanon."
The country is "sliding toward the abyss because of the failure to reach a compromise" on electing a new president, said Mussa, whose organisation has been trying to convince feuding MPs to agree on a plan to break the deadlock.
Russia expressed "deep concern" after the latest deadly bombing, saying it showed there was a political "vacuum" in Lebanon.
Lebanon has been without a president since pro-Syrian head of state Emile Lahoud stepped down on November 23 with no elected successor because of a standoff between the majority and the Hezbollah-led opposition.
In February 2005, five-time prime minister Hariri was killed by a huge bomb on the Beirut seafront. The backlash against his killing resulted in Syria withdrawing its forces from its small neighbour after nearly 30 years.
Later on Friday, a security official said a large cache of weapons was found in the southern coastal city of Sidon.
Lebanon's top anti-terrorism investigator was slain along with three other people in a powerful car bombing that ripped through a neighbourhood of Beirut on Friday, officials said.
Captain Wissam Eid, 31, a member of the Internal Security Forces (ISF), and his bodyguard were killed along with two civilians, a security official told AFP. He said 38 other people were wounded, with nine taken to hospital.
"Eid was a key member of the ISF and was involved in many investigations related to terrorist bombings in Lebanon in recent years," the official said. "He was involved in sensitive probes and this is a major loss for us."
The official added that Eid had in February 2006 narrowly escaped another attempt on his life when someone threw a grenade in front of his Beirut home.
Another official from the ruling majority said Eid was on his way back from a meeting of the UN commission investigating the 2005 assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri when he was killed.
Hariri's death in a massive car bomb and a number of similar attacks over the past three years have been blamed by the Western-backed parliamentary majority on neighbouring Syria, which has denied involvement.
Brigadier General Ashraf Rifi, head of the ISF, said the car bomb was yet another attempt at destabilizing the country as it grapples with its worst political crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.
"This is a message to the Internal Security Forces following the message sent to the army in December when General Francois el-Hajj was killed in a car bomb" last month, Rifi told reporters at the site of the blast.
Prime Minister Fuad Siniora declared a national day of mourning on Saturday when Eid and his bodyguard are to be buried.
Friday's explosion took place shortly after 10 am (0800 GMT) near a highway overpass in Hazmiyeh, a mainly Christian district in eastern Beirut and an area that houses a number of office buildings.
Local residents and office workers, some screaming and others in shock, could be seen running amongst blazing vehicles searching for friends and loved ones.
"It was an apocalyptic vision," said Ghandour Mashlab, a real estate agent who was at the site.
The security official estimated that the bomb, which blasted a five-metre (16-foot) wide crater into the road, consisted of at least 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of TNT.
A senior member of the anti-Syrian majority pointed the finger at Damascus.
"This bombing is proof that the (Syrian) mukhabarat (intelligence) have infiltrated Lebanese security services,' the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP.
Syria, however, condemned the killing and blamed "Lebanon's enemies".
The bombing was also widely denounced by the international community and Arab states.
"Lebanon has too long suffered from foreign interference," said US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in a clear allusion to Syria, complaining about the "violent pattern and intimidation" of the Beirut bombing.
UN chief Ban Ki-moon said the latest attack "should not be allowed to undermine the security, stability and sovereignty of Lebanon".
"We strongly condemn the terrorist bombing in Beirut today that killed a police captain and many other Lebanese," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said.
Britain's Foreign Office said it should not be allowed to derail the probe into the string of killings in Lebanon.
In Riyadh, Saudi King Abdullah called for unity to foil "the schemes of those who do not wish well for Lebanon" while Arab League chief Amr Mussa warned that the latest attack could "affect the unity of Lebanon."
The country is "sliding toward the abyss because of the failure to reach a compromise" on electing a new president, said Mussa, whose organisation has been trying to convince feuding MPs to agree on a plan to break the deadlock.
Russia expressed "deep concern" after the latest deadly bombing, saying it showed there was a political "vacuum" in Lebanon.
Lebanon has been without a president since pro-Syrian head of state Emile Lahoud stepped down on November 23 with no elected successor because of a standoff between the majority and the Hezbollah-led opposition.
In February 2005, five-time prime minister Hariri was killed by a huge bomb on the Beirut seafront. The backlash against his killing resulted in Syria withdrawing its forces from its small neighbour after nearly 30 years.
Later on Friday, a security official said a large cache of weapons was found in the southern coastal city of Sidon.
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