From High Hopes to Abyss; The Lebanon Dilemma

From High Hopes to Abyss; The Lebanon Dilemma

Water water everywhere, but not a drop to drink. The atmosphere of abundant hopes to push the political crisis in Lebanon one iota towards solution seems to have scattered away, again.
Arab League Secretary General Amr Mussa 'was surprised by the openness and positivism of MP General Michel Aoun' during their meeting Thursday. Of course the goal of both Mussa and the opposition is to cut a comprehensive political deal with the ruling bloc under the auspices of the Arab League to solve the crisis.
Amr Moussa arrived in Beirut Wednesday evening to present a plan, unanimously endorsed by Arab foreign ministers in Cairo on Saturday, calling for the election of the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, General Michel Suleiman, as president, the formation of a national unity government and the adoption of a new electoral law.
HIGH HOPES AND THEN…
But how would Mussa arrange a meeting between the feuding parties to negotiate an agreement, given the tense political situation and the little time left for him in Lebanon? General Aoun foresaw this ordeal and proposed to Mussa that he (Aoun) meets MP Saad Hariri. "I am commissioned by the opposition and I can take upon myself that I will not leave the meeting room before signing the deal with Hariri, even without consulting my allies in the opposition because they have trustfully delegated me," Assafir quoted Aoun as telling Mussa. The Arab chief also welcomed Aoun's proposal that the meeting with Hariri be held in parliament. On his way to Speaker Nabih Berri's residence, the Arab chief contacted Hariri and conveyed Aoun's proposal. He asked the Future Movement leader for an official response to the proposal. Berri expressed relief and told Mussa he was ready to do everything necessary to bring about the meeting. "The doors of the parliament are open to you," Berri said. This was the point of culmination.
FALL INTO ABYSS
The first sign of decline came from local media outlets which broadcast the news of the meeting between Hariri and Aoun, even before Mussa arrived to Berri's residence. It was supposed to be kept secret. The steep decline came from Qoraytem (Hariri's headquarters). Hariri rejected meeting Aoun. Mussa only knew about the decision through media outlets just as he was wrapping up his meeting with Berri. The Assafir daily reported that the Future Movement leader had consulted his allies in the February 14 coalition. Some of them proposed 'an expanded dialogue gathering' while Lebanese Forces Chief Samir Geagea demanded he takes part in any meeting between Hariri and Aoun. The former army general responded: "The opposition can take part in any expanded meeting, however I will not participate. They (February 14) are not serious about finding a solution."
HEZBOLLAH: TALK TO AOUN
Mussa wrapped up his second day in Lebanon with a meeting with Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
Sayyed Nasrallah told Mussa that Aoun is delegated to negotiate with the loyalty bloc on behalf of the opposition. His eminence advised the Arab League chief to communicate with Aoun to reach the hoped for results. Sayyed Nasrallah stressed the opposition is seeking real partnership, not a formal one.
CONCLUSION: SOLUTION OUT OF REACH
In view of his marathon tour so far, Mussa said that the 'Cairo declaration' stipulates that no Lebanese party can control the fate of the government and that the upcoming president of the republic would have a fundamental role in this regard. Mussa also said that the ministerial quota suggested in the declaration does not mean equal thirds to the loyalty, the president and the opposition. "The loyalty bloc, as a majority in parliament, would have 11 ministers, the opposition 10 ministers and the rest goes to the president.
The Al-Akhbar daily quoted opposition sources as saying that they will not agree to any formula that would give the loyalty bloc more than 10 ministers, unless the opposition was given the guaranteeing one third of ministers. Aoun warned that "we are running out of patience." "We take 11 ministers and the remaining 19 ministers would be distributed between the president and the loyalty bloc," Aoun told Mussa. For its part the loyalty bloc told the Arab leader that "there is no way to accept a formula that would give the loyalty and the opposition and equal number of ministers." "The solution is to give the opposition 10 ministers, another 8 to the president and 12 ministers to the loyalty bloc," Al-Akhbar daily quoted February 14 sources as saying. "There is no way to talk to Aoun. Dialogue can take place at a round table or with the Speaker," it added. The loyalty bloc, according to the daily, does not want the question of the electoral law to be determined at the time being.